24-25

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Sun Feb 9, 2025

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Human-triggered avalanches are likely, especially where snow that fell over the last week is drifted into thicker slabs. Avalanches could break within the recent snow or on persistent weak layers buried 1-3 feet deep below the last week’s snow.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><strong><span><span>Wind slab avalanches</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> will be easy to trigger where recent snow has been drifted by west and south winds into thicker slabs.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><strong><span><span>Persistent slab avalanches</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> are a primary concern as they could break hundreds of feet wide and 1-3 feet deep, or deeper on wind-loaded slopes. Weak, sugary layers of facets and surface hoar are buried 1-3 feet deep below the last week’s snow. These weak layers appear to be most widespread near West Yellowstone and the southern Madison and Gallatin ranges, but have been found elsewhere (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/34043"><span><span><span><strong><span…. Ellis observation</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>). You should keep them in mind and be on the lookout no matter where you travel in the forecast area. Yesterday we rode north of Cooke City and did not see clear evidence that these weak layers are a widespread concern, but the snowpack needs more time to adjust to all the recent snow before we have confidence to rule out the potential for larger slides (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/34067"><span><span><span><strong><span…;).</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><strong><span><span>Storm slab avalanches</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> can break on density changes within the recent snow. These instabilities should stabilize within a couple days, but the cold temperatures could slow that process. We have had reports of avalanches breaking within the new snow throughout the week (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/25/small-avalanche-near-round-lake">… from Cooke City yesterday</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/34058"><span><span><span><strong><span… observation</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/34051"><span><span><span><strong><span… observation</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>). Yesterday near Cooke City we found lower density layers of recent snow preserved below harder slabs. Be aware that avalanches could break within the recent snow even where it is not drifted (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://youtu.be/Jvuidj51Djw"><span><span><span><strong><span><u><span>…;).&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>At lower elevations around the valleys snow depths are notably deep, particularly on some steep slopes that don’t often hold much snow. Yesterday Dave noted this abundance of snow in Sourdough canyon, and he wrote a great </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/34062"><span><span><span><span><span><… with avalanche concerns and travel advice to keep in mind for these areas that don’t typically have as much snow and avalanche potential</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Cautious route-finding and careful snowpack evaluation are essential today. Either avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees or evaluate the snowpack for recent drifting and buried weak layers before getting onto those steeper slopes. Watch for cracking across the snow surface as a sign the recent snow or wind drifts could avalanche on steeper slopes. Dig down a few feet to assess for buried weak layers. Choose smaller slopes to minimize the size of potential avalanches, and slopes without hazards like trees or cliffs that make any size slide more dangerous.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events

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Fawn Pass Pits and surfaces

Date
Activity
Skiing

We dug at couple and got propagation irregularly. Snow surfaces were soft on NE, Wind affected on S and E.  

44.94818, -111.06373
7505 ft
69 E
HST 95 CM
EctN 5 25 CM down
ECTP 19 65 CM down
CT2 q2 down CM 25
CT17 Q2 down CM 65

44.94458, -111.06444
7736 ft
55 NE

Hst 135 CM
ECTN 5 96 CM up
ECTN 17 82 CM up
ECTN 27 45 CM up

Region
Southern Madison
Location (from list)
Fawn Pass

Bradley Meadows Snowpack Obs

Date
Activity
Skiing

We did not find any signs of weak layers from the recent high pressure while touring throughout Bradley Meadows area. 

 

HS of 125-155cm in Bradley Forest North, 130-200cm in Wolverine woods. CT4-12Q2 down 25 (new/old interface), ECTN x 3 in Bradley Forest North.

Moderate/high winds, Few clouds, no precip, air temp 5F deg around 2pm.

 

Region
Bridger Range
Observer Name
Lael Butler

Optimistic on Ellis

Date
Activity
Skiing

Toured up Mt Ellis from Bear Canyon. I was surprised at how non-wind affected the snow was after yesterday's strong winds from E-W. Cornice buildup on the ridge was minimal, soft snow was still on the surface, and the trees along the ridge to the summit still held snow. I dug a quick pit on a NE aspect at 8260', looking for buried surface hoar and/or near surface facets. Found about 8" of fresh snow on top of a right-side-up snowpack. ECTX. About 2.5' down, I found rounding facets. While I may not have found persistent weak layers in my snow pit, I suspect there are locations where SH/NSF are still preserved. Dig down and see what is going on underneath your feet, before committing to any steep slopes. 

Region
Northern Gallatin
Location (from list)
Mt Ellis
Observer Name
H. Darby

Wind slab avalanches in the northern gallatin

Northern Gallatin
Code
SS-ASu-R1-D1
Elevation
7800
Aspect
NW
Latitude
45.59870
Longitude
-111.03300
Notes

Toured into the north Gallatin today and skied on north facing terrain. Saw obvious loading in the new snow up high on the ridge lines, but no recent natural avalanches. We encountered several debris piles that were covered by new snow, probably from a few days ago and likely wind slabs based on the terrain. Skiing, we triggered 3 wind slabs (ss-d1-r1) on a north west facing slope at around 7800’, each ran the entirety of the face. Notably, one of the slabs propagated above the skier and about 20-25 ft to the right. Skiing a north east slope (slightly more sheltered), no signs of instability were observed. We didn’t observe a weak layer underneath the most recent new snow, but we did see a layer of dust and crust deeper in the pack. 

Number of slides
3
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Skier
Trigger Modifier
u-An unintentional release
R size
1
D size
1
Problem Type
Wind-Drifted Snow
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Multiple Avalanches
Advisory Year

Soft Slab Avalanche near Round Lake

Round Lake
Cooke City
Code
SS-AS-R1-D1
Elevation
9500
Aspect
SE
Latitude
45.07450
Longitude
-109.90700
Notes

Saw this small soft slab above Round Lake today. SE facing, 9500 ft. Likely skier triggered, there were lots of ski tracks on that hill. 
 

Poor visibility today but no other avalanches observed. 

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Skier
R size
1
D size
1
Problem Type
Storm Slab
Slab Thickness
10.0 inches
Vertical Fall
100ft
Slab Width
15.00ft
Snow Observation Source
Slab Thickness units
inches
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year

Pit Tests at Bacon rind

Date
Activity
Snowboarding

On the ascent, particularly above 8000 ft using quick pole insertion tests, my group noticed a first crust at about 12-15 cm, a middle soft weak layer, and then about 45-50 cm down a second crust, then weak soft snow to the ground. 

 

On a SE slope at 8750 ft elevation, my group performed an ECT and PST test. The snow temp was -15 C and the air temp was -14 C. 

 

Snow height was 115 CM.

 

Test results:

ECT X

PST 55 cm/100 on the weak layer of depth hoar from 25 cm to ground.  

 

The first 8 cm was fresh snow--dendrite or decomposing precipitation particles (F hardness). The next four layers from 107-67 cm were various layers, including a dust layer, mostly rounds, minimal faceting, 4F hardness. From 67 CM and lower, there was an increase in faceted snow, and of course, depth hoar for the last 25 cm.

 

Overall, a great day of low-angle tree skiing. 

Region
Southern Madison
Location (from list)
Bacon Rind
Observer Name
NIco Ludkowski