20-21

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Sun Feb 21, 2021

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p>Many natural avalanches broke on weak, sugary snow near the bottom of the snowpack after strong winds a few days ago drifted 2 feet of recent snow into heavy slabs. Today, strong west winds will drift snow into thicker slabs and grow cornices large along ridgelines. The additional weight of a skier, rider or cornice fall could trigger a very large, deep slab avalanche. It is more difficult to collapse this deep weak layer than it was a few week ago, but if you do trigger an avalanche it will be destructive and deadly.</p>

<ul>
<li>Yesterday we skied to Mt. Blackmore and looked at a very large, 4-10 foot deep, 700 foot wide avalanche that broke late Thursday or early Friday (<strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ychm42ihtjk&amp;list=PLXu5151nmAvQDzKmH…;, <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/24345"><strong>photos and details</strong></a>).</li>
<li>We also saw a recent natural deep slab avalanche on Alex Lowe peak (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/21/natural-deep-slab-lowe-peak-2">ph…;), and skiers saw a recent very large, deep slide on Flanders peak (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/24364">photos and details</a></strong>).</li>
<li>Near Buck Ridge yesterday, a snowmobiler triggered a deep avalanche, and was luckily not caught (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/21/slide-east-sphinx">photo</a></str…;).</li>
<li>On Thursday near Bridger Peak a large natural avalanche broke on a heavily wind-loaded slope (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/24324"><strong>photos</strong></a&gt;).</li>
<li>Last Sunday a splitboarder was killed in an avalanche in Beehive Basin (<strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gLB_fAZsb8">video</a></strong&gt;). Since then&nbsp;there have been six&nbsp;avalanche fatalities in the U.S., a total of 23 this month and 30 this winter.</li>
</ul>

<p>Today the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on wind-loaded slopes and MODERATE on all other steep slopes. Avoid travel on and underneath steep, wind-loaded slopes.</p>

<p>In the southern Gallatin and Madison Range and near West Yellowstone, weak, sugary snow near the ground makes large avalanches possible. The potential size of avalanches is similar to those we have seen recently near Bozeman and Big Sky, but less snow and wind through the week lowers the likelihood of triggering an avalanche. These mountains received 1-1.5 feet of snow since last weekend which will be drifted into fresh slabs by wind today. These slabs are possible to trigger and they could break deeper and wider on weak snow near the ground. Today, large avalanches are possible to trigger and avalanche danger is MODERATE.</p>

<p>The mountains near Cooke City got over a foot of snow in the last week equal to 1.2” of snow water equivalent (SWE). This is a small load on a snowpack that lacks widespread buried weak layers. The primary avalanche concern is fresh drifts formed by recent wind which can break under the weight of a skier or rider (<strong>Dave’s video from </strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzo-kbMbDUc"><strong>Wednesday</strong>…; <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/21/snowmobile-triggered-slide-crown-… triggered avalanche on Crown Butte last Thursday</a></strong>). Slopes with a shallower snowpack are less common, but are where you might find weaker, sugary snow below a slab (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/24369">skier on town hill got a large collapse yesterday</a></strong>). The avalanche danger is MODERATE near Cooke City. Carefully evaluate the snowpack and consequences of a slide before travel on or underneath steep slopes.</p>

<p>If you get out, please send us your observations no matter how brief. You can submit them via our <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation"><strong>website<…;, email (<a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com"><strong>mtavalanche@gmail.com</strong></a…;), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>

BEEHIVE BASIN AVALANCHE ACCIDENT REPORT

We posted a detailed report from Sunday's fatal avalanche in Beehive Basin here.

The video of our accident investigation from the field is here.

Collapse on town hill near Cooke

Town Hill
Cooke City
Code
Latitude
45.02560
Longitude
-109.93700
Notes

"...but just as I was about to drop in a huge whumph and collapse occurred all around me so I bailed. Spooky. This spot has a shallow snowpack on what is essentially a shale field."

Number of slides
0
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Problem Type
Persistent Weak Layer
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Red Flag
Advisory Year

Natural Deep Slab on A. Lowe Peak

Alex Lowe Peak
Northern Gallatin
Code
HS-N-R3-D2.5-O
Elevation
9500
Aspect
N
Latitude
45.42720
Longitude
-111.01400
Notes

We saw this crown on 2/20/21. It likely broke 2/19 or 2/18.

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Hard slab avalanche
Trigger
Natural trigger
R size
3
D size
2.5
Bed Surface
O - Old snow
Problem Type
Persistent Weak Layer
Slab Thickness
48.0 inches
Vertical Fall
1400ft
Slab Width
150.00ft
Slab Thickness units
inches
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year

Natural Deep Slab Flanders

Flanders Creek
Northern Gallatin
Code
HS-N-R4-D3-O
Elevation
9600
Aspect
NE
Latitude
45.43300
Longitude
-110.94300
Notes

From obs [2/20/21]: "We observed a large natural slide on Flanders Mountain that likely occurred on Thursday (2/18/21). The crown ranged from 2-5’, but it’s hard to gauge how wide it was, because it covered a lot of elevations. I think there is considerable overlap with the large slide that ran there earlier this season. We did not observe any other slides, collapsing, or cracking, but the wind did pick up in the early afternoon." 

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Hard slab avalanche
Trigger
Natural trigger
R size
4
D size
3
Bed Surface
O - Old snow
Problem Type
Persistent Weak Layer
Slab Thickness
60.0 inches
Vertical Fall
700ft
Slab Width
1500.00ft
Slab Thickness units
inches
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year

From obs [2/20/21]: "We observed a large natural slide on Flanders Mountain that likely occurred on Thursday (2/18/21). The crown ranged from 2-5’, but it’s hard to gauge how wide it was, because it covered a lot of elevations. I think there is considerable overlap with the large slide that ran there earlier this season. We did not observe any other slides, collapsing, or cracking, but the wind did pick up in the early afternoon." Photo: S. Reinsel

Northern Gallatin, 2021-02-21